Australia's population growth: a story of projections and reality
A tale of unexpected growth.
Back in 2003, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) made a bold prediction about our nation's future. They forecasted a population of 26.4 million by 2051, assuming a steady net overseas migration (NOM) of 100,000 annually. But here's where it gets controversial... the ABS's projections fell short of reality.
The ABS's 2003 report, 'Population Projections 2002 to 2101', outlined a vision for our capital cities. Sydney was expected to reach 5.65 million, while Melbourne was projected at 4.79 million. However, the federal government's decision to significantly increase NOM led to a massive shift in these numbers.
Between 2004 and 2025, Australia's NOM averaged a whopping 225,000 annually, more than double the ABS's assumption. As a result, our population has already surpassed the 2003 forecast, with the ABS Population Clock recording a figure of nearly 28 million. That's an overshoot of around 1.5 million!
Our capital cities have also grown beyond expectations. Melbourne, for instance, reached 5.4 million in 2024-25, and Sydney hit 5.6 million. Interestingly, the ABS argued that NOM has a minimal impact on the age structure of our population. They stated that migrants age alongside the rest of the population, and while they might have a slightly younger age structure upon arrival, this impact is relatively small.
Even the ABS's most 'extreme' scenario, an annual NOM of 200,000, fell short of reality. Under this scenario, Australia's population was projected to reach 32.5 million by 2051, still significantly lower than our current trajectory.
Now, let's fast forward to the Centre for Population's latest projections. They predict a staggering 13.4 million increase in our population by 2065-66, an almost 50% growth. This rate is equivalent to adding another Sydney, Melbourne, and Perth to our current population in just 41 years. And the primary driver? High NOM, forecast to average 235,000 annually over the next four decades.
By the mid-2060s, Melbourne and Sydney are projected to become megacities, with populations of 9.1 million and 8.5 million, respectively. Brisbane is also expected to grow significantly, reaching around 4.6 million.
In 2010, former Prime Minister Julia Gillard expressed her concerns about a 'Big Australia'. She stated, "I don't believe in a big Australia. I think we want an Australia that is sustainable. We should pause, we take a breath, and just get this right."
Gillard's words resonate even today. Yet, subsequent governments, with support from major parties, the Greens, and the Teals, have continued a massive migration program. And according to the Centre for Population's projections, this trend will persist, leading us past a population of 40 million, regardless of the impacts on productivity, sustainability, and our way of life.
Australians never had a say in this matter. A Big Australia was imposed on us, using the ageing population as a justification, a claim the ABS itself debunked in 2003.
What are your thoughts? Do you think Australia's population growth is a cause for concern, or is it a necessary step for our nation's future? Feel free to share your opinions in the comments below!
