Three Questions for Jacob Misiorowski's Second Season
The Promise of a Rising Star: Can Misiorowski Build on His Stellar Debut?
On Tuesday, Jacob Misiorowski is set to make his spring debut, marking the beginning of his second season with the Brewers. With the departure of Freddy Peralta, Misiorowski is now undoubtedly the highlight of the Brewers' rotation. Brandon Woodruff, the longest-tenured Brewer, remains a stalwart, but Misiorowski is being positioned as one of the franchise's new faces. As he embarks on his second year, several questions loom large.
Can he replicate the success of his strong first season? Misiorowski's debut was one of the most hyped in recent Brewers history. He started with 11 no-hit innings and carried a perfect game into the seventh inning of his season opener. This impressive performance earned him an All-Star selection after just five major league starts. However, as the season progressed, Misiorowski faced challenges, including a left tibia contusion that landed him on the IL. Despite this setback, his season ended on a high note, with a strong postseason run that put him back in the spotlight.
The question now is whether he can build on this momentum. Early projections are optimistic, with ZiPS forecasting 26 appearances covering 116 2/3 innings, a 3.86 ERA, 3.80 FIP, 10.93 K/9, and 3.93 BB/9. While this represents a slight dip in innings and strikeouts, it also indicates a potential improvement in his walk rate, aligning with his minor league development trajectory. However, as fans, we must temper our expectations. Another All-Star year may not be realistic, and Misiorowski might not even be the top pitcher in the Brewers' rotation. So, would a season with small improvements in his stats be considered a success? It might, as it would demonstrate continued growth year over year, even if it's not as spectacular as his debut.
Innings Management: How Will Misiorowski Handle the Jump in Innings?
Teams typically don't impose specific inning limits on pitchers, but for Misiorowski, this is a critical question as he continues to develop in the majors. His innings significantly increased between 2024 and 2025, from 97 1/3 to 141 1/3 innings across the regular season and postseason, a 45% rise. Most teams use a 20% to 25% increase as a general guideline, but this isn't a rigid rule. It depends on the pitcher's individual response to the workload.
Misiorowski faced challenges after a short IL stint in August, posting a 6.41 ERA and 4.00 FIP in his first six starts upon his return. However, he rebounded in his final two starts and was included on the postseason roster, where he truly shined, allowing just two earned runs in three postseason starts spanning 12 innings.
It's highly unlikely that the Brewers will increase his innings by 45% again in 2026, which would make him a 200-inning pitcher in his second season. Early projections suggest a slight increase, with ZiPS forecasting 116 2/3 innings. Most other projections on FanGraphs place him between 134 and 139 innings, resulting in 30 to 32 appearances. Interestingly, many of these projections only anticipate Misiorowski making 24-25 starts, partly due to the Brewers' likely continued use of openers and the possibility of him spending time in the bullpen as innings management.
However, there's no reason why he can't secure a full season of starts. Quinn Priester, who made 29 appearances last season (all starts despite using openers), pitched 157 1/3 innings. This would likely be near the top of Misiorowski's projected innings for this season. Even if he pitched that much, there would still be room for postseason appearances, and strategic start manipulation during the season could provide him with additional starts.
The main question for Misiorowski is whether this increased workload will impact his performance. While he had an offseason to rest, the significant jump in innings is a concern. Is he fully recovered from last season and capable of pitching a similar number of innings again?
Learning from the Past: How Have Other Brewers Fared in Their Second Seasons?
Answering this question isn't straightforward, as other Brewers have taken different paths to establish themselves. Although the development staff has changed over the years, the Brewers have a strong track record, providing a useful reference point. Let's examine the journeys of some of the Brewers' biggest names in recent years:
- Brandon Woodruff: He made his major league debut in August 2017, impressing with a strong start against the Rays. He made seven more starts to finish the season. In 2018, he primarily served in a bullpen role but also made a few starts as he bounced between the majors and Triple-A Colorado Springs. His regular season performance was strong enough to earn him a postseason roster spot, where he made four appearances, two of which were starts (including the decoy NLCS Game 5).
2017: 43 IP, 8 games (all starts), 4.81 ERA, 4.37 FIP, 6.7 K/9, 2.9 BB/9
2018: 42 1/3 IP, 19 games (4 starts), 3.61 ERA, 3.30 FIP, 10.0 K/9, 3.0 BB/9
- Freddy Peralta: He made his debut in 2018, helping fill the Brewers' rotation as he bounced between the major and minor leagues. In the majors, he started 14 games before finishing the season in the bullpen. He also made a postseason appearance, pitching three scoreless innings. In 2019, he spent most of the season in the bullpen after early struggles in the rotation. While his ERA and FIP increased, his strikeout and walk rates both improved.
2018: 78.1 IP, 16 games (14 starts), 4.25 ERA, 3.72 FIP, 11.0 K/9, 4.6 BB/9
2019: 85 IP, 39 games (8 starts), 5.29 ERA, 4.18 FIP, 12.2 K/9, 3.9 BB/9
- Corbin Burnes: Unlike the above two pitchers, who saw growth between their first and second seasons, Burnes faced a different trajectory. He began his career in the bullpen and started strong, earning a spot on the postseason roster with a 2.61 ERA out of the bullpen. However, his second season was a disaster. He started the season in the rotation but was quickly removed after a 10.70 ERA in four starts. A return to the bullpen helped, but not enough, and he returned to the minors at the end of July. Thankfully, the Brewers didn't give up on him, and he began to show more improvement in his third season.
2018: 38 IP, 30 games (no starts), 2.61 ERA, 3.79 FIP, 8.3 K/9, 2.6 BB/9
2019: 49 IP, 32 games (4 starts), 8.82 ERA, 6.09 FIP, 12.9 K/9, 3.7 BB/9
- Aaron Ashby: Ashby made his debut in June 2021, making a spot start before returning in August. He initially pitched as a starter but shifted to the bullpen to finish the season. He made the opening day roster in 2022 and initially moved between the bullpen and rotation. He eventually settled into the rotation and finished the year there. Though the results weren't the best, the Brewers had enough confidence in him that they signed him to a five-year, $20.5-million extension after his second season. Unfortunately, he missed all of 2023 and part of 2024 due to a shoulder injury.
2021: 31 2/3 IP, 13 games (4 starts), 4.55 ERA, 3.58 FIP, 11.1 K/9, 3.4 BB/9
2022: 107 1/3 IP, 27 games (19 starts), 4.44 ERA, 4.06 FIP, 10.6 K/9, 3.9 BB/9
How will Misiorowski fare in his second season? Given the Brewers' track record, he's likely due for some more growth. Tuesday marks the start of his second season. Let's hope for another inspiring story for the Brewers.
