Bold claim: Bitcoin’s old four-year cycle may be breaking apart—and that shift is more than a rumor; it could change how price movements are understood. Standard Chartered now argues that the traditional halving-driven pattern is no longer a reliable predictor for BTC’s price actions. Historically, Bitcoin’s price tended to surge in the eighteen months following a halving, an event that cuts the mining reward in half roughly every four years. Yet the bank contends that the introduction of U.S. Bitcoin ETFs has added a new layer of influence, drawing in mainstream investors and altering the classic cycle dynamics.
For this revised view to prove itself, Bitcoin would need to break above its all-time high of about $126,000, a milestone Standard Chartered anticipates could occur in the first half of 2026. In line with a more cautious outlook, the bank has trimmed its price targets for the coming years: from $200,000 to $100,000 in 2025, from $300,000 to $200,000 in 2026, from $400,000 to $225,000 in 2027, and from $500,000 to $300,000 thereafter. At present, BTC trades around $90,000, based on CoinGecko data.
Other observers share a similar skepticism about the old halving cycle. Bernstein analysts recently noted that four-year cycles may be fading as Bitcoin ETFs dominate the landscape. CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju also argues that institutional buying power has weakened the historical cycle. Whether BTC can reclaim and surpass its prior all-time high in the coming year remains an open question, inviting ongoing debate about what truly drives Bitcoin’s price.
Key takeaway: the supposed ritual of halvings driving predictable gains may be less reliable than once believed, and multiple new factors—especially enhanced ETF access for mainstream investors—could be reshaping the trajectory of Bitcoin’s price.
